The new framework, called the UK Border Target Operating Model (BTOM), will replace the existing EU-based system, and is intended to create a targeted, proportionate, risk-based approach to import checks.
However, new responsibilities placed on both importers and exporters could lead to supply chain delays in the short term, as well as additional costs for UK and EU businesses, says Rowan Austin, our Head of Trade Origination and Advisory, Corporates & Institutions.
“Until now, exports from the EU to the UK were happening in broadly the same way as they were pre-Brexit,” he says. “But with the additional paperwork and physical checks now required, the main challenge will be whether the UK’s technology and infrastructure are ready for the additional load.
“There will also be a cost to EU and UK businesses to process the new paperwork and carry out animal health and phytosanitary checks, which may be passed on to customers in higher prices. This could in turn contribute to inflation, which is clearly a concern in the current environment.”
Supply chain delays as businesses adapt to the new rules, especially for foodstuffs and goods that have a limited shelf life, are another potential concern. And port authorities will have to be flexible to ease bottlenecks when they occur, Rowan says.
But once the new model is fully up and running, there could be potential for UK businesses to take advantage of a reshaped market.
“Some smaller EU exporters may drop out of the UK market completely because of the additional checks and paperwork required, and that could present opportunities for domestic producers to fill in the gaps.
“And supply chains do adapt. We learned during Covid that when you stretch them, they squeak, but they’re adaptable. If one supplier drops out, another usually emerges.”