Poland’s 2025 presidential election is a pivotal moment for the country’s democracy and economy.

The current government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), has faced significant roadblocks from the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, a member of the opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS).

Given that Duda is ineligible for re-election due to term limits, the outcome will determine whether the government can proceed with its judicial and democratic reforms or if PiS will maintain its influence.

If KO’s candidate wins, Poland could see judicial reforms, a stronger PLN, and closer EU ties. If PiS retains the presidency, it would maintain significant influence over the judiciary and central bank, potentially stalling reforms and impacting financial markets. Regardless of the outcome, the election will shape Poland’s political and economic landscape for years to come.

The first round of voting is scheduled for 18 May with a likely runoff on 1 June (where no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round). Given that multiple parties are fielding candidates, a second round is likely.

KO’s candidate is Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, a well-known progressive politician with a strong pro-EU stance. Trzaskowski, who lost narrowly to Duda in the 2020 election, has experience as Poland’s former EU Affairs Minister.

PiS’s candidate is Karol Nawrocki, a historian and head of the National Remembrance Institute. Unlike Trzaskowski, Nawrocki has never held a government position and is largely unknown to the public. He represents a conservative and traditionalist stance, opposing relaxation of Poland’s restrictive abortion laws.

Poland has a dual system where presidential and parliamentary elections are separate, leading to divided governance. In the 2023 parliamentary elections, KO gained control, ending PiS’s eight-year rule. However, PiS remains the largest party in parliament, which, along with Duda’s presidential veto, has allowed them to obstruct KO’s reform agenda.

Key issues in the election include judicial reforms, national security, economic stability and immigration.

The opinion polls so far (%)

A KO presidency would return Poland to a pro-EU stance. The EU has already released Poland’s previously frozen funding, expecting reforms to progress. If Trzaskowski wins, KO will have an opportunity to remove legal barriers that have prevented judicial independence reforms.

However, if Nawrocki wins, PiS will likely continue using presidential powers to block reforms. A Nawrocki victory could also renew tensions between Poland and the EU.

These include a National Council for the Judiciary, reforms to the Constitutional Tribunal and a special chamber in the Supreme Court to rule on election disputes.

The election outcome will likely influence the National Bank of Poland’s policies.

A KO win could delay an interest rate cuts as the bank’s leadership faces potential government scrutiny and removal. A PiS victory might accelerate cuts, as the central bank governor, Adam Glapiński, would be shielded from such scrutiny.

A win for the pro-EU KO could lead to a revaluation of Polish assets. Poland returning to the EU fold and restoring judicial independence would be PLN supportive.

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