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Protectionism, fiscal activism, and terminal rates

The Year Ahead 2025

Essential insights into 2025

This year was marked by political change across the globe, with more than 50 elections held in 2024. And while many governments may have new mandates in 2025, they face entrenched problems, including high levels of national debt, anaemic growth and, in some cases, creaking infrastructure. Moreover, geopolitical risk and protectionism appear resurgent, challenging the resilience of supply chains, threatening escalation of global conflict, and raising the risk that inflation stays higher-for-longer.

 With fiscal policy back in the driving seat for markets, where do we see the big risks and opportunities emerging? Prepare for the year ahead by getting to grips with the big themes and events shaping the economy and moving markets in 2025.

Monetary policy in 2025: the path to terminal rates

Inflation is broadly falling, for now. With cutting cycles well under way, where might interest rates end?

Fiscal’s long-covid: sprawling deficits could harm growth

Successive crises have saddled economies with high debt, while excessive borrowing may prevent larger falls in interest rates and hinder private sector growth.

Unfree trade: the worrying rise of fragmentation and protectionism

Conflict, covid and other crises have altered supply chains, but geopolitics is redrawing them once more.

Make America Great Again, again: what Trump 2.0 means for the world economy

With the campaign behind us, which election promises could carry through into policy and what impact might they have?  

Hear from our experts

Listen to the Year Ahead podcast series for more insight into 2025.

Rates markets and the fiscal cliffhanger

Our views on the big drivers for rates markets in 2025

A closer look at sterling and the US dollar in 2025

Our views on the big themes shaping FX markets in 2025

How elections will reshape the global economy in 2025

Election outcomes will bring big swings for policy in 2025

How trade, protectionism and geopolitics will shape supply chains in 2025

How might tensions, tariffs and Trump influence the trade backdrop for businesses?

Where next for global climate policy and ESG?

Where do we see climate policy and sustainability heading in 2025?

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