While we agree that Kamala is still the slight favourite, Trump is by no means out of the race, with polling consistently telling us that it’s going to be a tight contest. This is the third consecutive election that he’s been the Republican candidate, and he’s currently better positioned than he was at this stage than either of the previous two times. 

Two things stand out when comparing the 2024 race with the previous two elections. The first is that Trump was in the lead in the polls until recently – whereas in both 2016 and 2020, national polling leads for Trump were exceedingly rare. And even though Harris is currently ahead, she’s polling closer to Hillary Clinton in 2016 than she is to Joe Biden in 2020.

The second is the stability of the polls in 2024. This race has taken in some truly remarkable events, including the two assassination attempts on Donald Trump and the Democrats changing candidate. But polling has not seen the same volatility. In 2020, the consistency of Biden’s lead left us quite confident he would win. In 2024, we see the lack of volatility as a signal that Trump is a much more formidable candidate.

But of course, it’s not national polling that decides who wins US presidential elections; – it’s state-by-state votes. As is almost always the case, this means the identity of the next president will be decided in a handful of critical swing states. These include the midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and also Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The latest polling suggests they’re all close races. Based on our calculations, neither of the candidates can secure victory without winning at least one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. Harris currently has small leads in each, with the race closest in Pennsylvania. 

The Republicans have a clear advantage in the Senate this cycle, and our base case is that they narrowly recapture the chamber. In fact, we think the Republicans are likely to win the Senate even if Harris wins the presidency, which could sharply reduce the flexibility of a Harris administration and make it difficult to get her more progressive policies passed into law.

US Senators are elected to six-year terms and elections take place in a staggered format, meaning that not every Senate seat is up for election in each two-year electoral cycle. This time, the calendar heavily favours the Republicans. Not only do they hold a higher number of seats that are not up for election (38 vs. 28), but Republican seats that are up for election this year are mostly in safe territory. That’s not to say the Democrats have no chance of holding the Senate, but it’s clearly a big ask. 

Unlike in the Senate, where the staggered schedule can give one party a clear advantage, all 435 voting House Representatives are elected in each two-year cycle. One of the most reliable indicators of who will win the House in recent US elections has been the generic ballot, a poll that asks voters to ignore the individual personalities and respond if they intend to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate.

This year, the generic ballot tells us it’s going to be a very close race at the national level. There are swing districts across the country, but they are not concentrated in the traditional swing states for the presidential vote. In fact, half of the 22 House seats rated as most competitive by Cook Political Report are in states that are unlikely to be competitive in the presidential race, including four Republican-held districts in California and three in New York. That said, we think that the broader national climate may be a better indicator of who will win House control than the issues facing specific regions or districts.

Next time

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