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Economics

NatWest UK Regional Growth Tracker report for August 2024

Business activity rises universally for first time in three months in August.

Key findings

  • Business activity growth led by Northern Ireland
  • Employment rises in ten out of 12 nations and regions
  • Rates of input cost and output price inflation slow in most cases

 

August saw business activity rise universally across the UK for the first time in three months, the latest NatWest Regional Growth Tracker showed. The Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled. For the first time since May, business activity increased across all 12 nations and regions, up from ten in July. Northern Ireland topped the growth rankings for the third time in the past four months. It was followed closely by the South West. The North East saw the slowest rise in output and was one of just two areas (alongside London) that saw a softer pace of expansion than in July.

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:

"Our latest Growth Tracker report showed business activity rising across all 12 UK nations and regions in August, representing an improvement from the ten that recorded an expansion in July. Renewed upturns were seen in the East Midlands and Wales, although it was Northern Ireland that remained the brightest spot in terms of outright growth. "Business optimism generally softened in August, following a post-election bounce in growth expectations in most areas in July. Nevertheless, sentiment towards future activity remains positive across the board, which is helping to support labour market conditions. "Alongside broad-based growth in business activity, it was encouraging to see price pressures ease in most areas, in what will be very welcome news for the Bank of England's policymakers. This will be something to watch going forward as we look to assess the direction of travel of inflation and the timing of further interest rate cuts."

 

Please see the regional reports in full:

UK National (PDF, 918KB)

North East (PDF, 1,000KB)

North West (PDF, 979KB)

Yorkshire and the Humber (PDF, 1,622KB)

East Midlands (PDF, 388KB)

West Midlands (PDF, 1,061KB)

East of England (PDF, 3,486KB)

London (PDF, 919KB)

South East (PDF, 1,061KB)

South West (PDF, 5,045KB)

Scotland (PDF, 1,395KB)

Wales (PDF, 393KB)

 

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This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

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