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Key findings

  • Seven out of 12 areas record output growth, led by Northern Ireland
  • Employment falls in the majority of cases
  • Cost inflation facing businesses generally eases

 

The Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled.

Northern Ireland continued to see the strongest growth, topping the rankings for the fourth month in a row. At the same time, there were solid increases in output across the North East, South West and London. Wales recorded the steepest drop in activity, its sharpest for 12 months, and was joined in contraction by Yorkshire & Humber, the South East and North West.

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:

"Growth in the UK economy slowed down in October, which was reflected in fewer of the nations and regions recording an expansion in business activity. The uncertainty around the Autumn Budget (which was announced after data collection had finished) played a part, leading to some trepidation among businesses and consumers alike. As well as decreases in most of the headline numbers for this month's UK Regional Growth Tracker, October saw sluggishness in underlying demand in some places and generally less optimism towards the outlook. Growth expectations weakened in just over half of cases, amid a backdrop of policy uncertainty. We also saw greater hesitancy around hiring, with just a third of the areas monitored recording a rise in employment, the fewest in the year to date. Northern Ireland was the main outlier, seeing another notable rise in workforce numbers, alongside relative buoyant growth in business activity. Positively, businesses for the most part saw slower cost increases compared to those faced the month before. The impact of the Autumn Budget on business costs will be in focus as we move into next year, but we may even see some effects in the coming months - particularly around pay - as firms plan for the rise in the National Minimum Wage and employers' National Insurance contributions next spring."

 

Please see the regional reports in full:

East of England (PDF, 1,441KB)

East Midlands (PDF, 1,499KB)

London (PDF, 1,332KB)

North East (PDF, 1,851KB)

North West (PDF, 1,420KB)

UK National (PDF, 1,398KB)

Scotland (PDF, 1,535KB)

South East (PDF, 1,916KB)

South West (PDF, 1,532KB)

Wales (PDF, 1,947KB)

West Midlands (PDF, 2,537KB)

Yorkshire and the Humber (PDF, 1,595KB)

 

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