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Key findings

 

  • Stronger growth in Northern Ireland contrasts with slight contraction in Wales
  • Employment rises in just half of the 12 nations and regions
  • Prices charged increase at similar rates across the UK

 

Business activity rose in all but one of the UK's 12 nations and regions in September, following broad-based growth in the previous month. The Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled. A renewed – albeit only slight – decrease in business activity in Wales in September prevented a second successive month of universal growth across the UK. Notably, rates of expansion generally eased compared to those seen in August. Northern Ireland was one of the exceptions, cementing its position at the top of the growth rankings with its fastest rise in output since May.

 

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:

 

"September's Growth Tracker report showed greater variation in performance across the UK's nations and regions compared to the situation in August when activity rose universally. Output still increased in almost all places, but at one end of the scale there was strong and accelerated growth in Northern Ireland and at the other end was a decline in activity in Wales. "At the same time, we saw some divergence in labour market trends, with only half of the 12 nations and regions recording a rise in employment in September, down from ten in August. It was a similar picture for business confidence, which, whilst generally remaining positive, decreased in just over half of cases. "On the other hand, price pressures were remarkably consistent across the 12 nations and regions in September, with rates of increase in average charges for goods and services all closely clustered around the national average, helping make the UK inflation story somewhat easier for our monetary policymakers to read."

 

Please see the regional reports in full:

 

UK National (PDF, 918KB)

North East (PDF, 1,000KB)

North West (PDF, 979KB)

Yorkshire and the Humber (PDF, 1,622KB)

East Midlands (PDF, 388KB)

West Midlands (PDF, 1,061KB)

East of England (PDF, 3,486KB)

London (PDF, 919KB)

South East (PDF, 1,061KB)

South West (PDF, 5,045KB)

Scotland (PDF, 1,395KB)

Wales (PDF, 393KB)

 

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