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Economics

NatWest UK Regional Growth Tracker report for November 2024

London and North East top growth rankings in November.

Key findings

  • Business activity rises strongly in London and North East
  • Performances waver in most other nations and regions
  • Cost pressures generally increase

 

The Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled. Growth of business activity in November was led by London, with the North East close behind. Northern Ireland, the strongest performer in the previous four months, lost momentum and posted its weakest expansion since January. Half of the 12 nations and regions monitored saw a fall in output, the steepest of which were recorded in Wales and the North West.

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:

"The two brightest spots of the UK economy in November were London and the North East, which both continued to enjoy relatively strong growth in business activity despite signs of a loss of momentum elsewhere. The North East's mini revival follows a period of underperformance throughout much of 2023, while it has become the norm to see London towards the top end of the growth rankings in recent times. On balance, firms throughout the UK continued to forecast growth in business activity over the next 12 months, although we're seeing a general pattern of reduced optimism, in part linked to the anticipated rise in employment costs. Labour market trends showed further signs of weakening with just under half of the 12 nations and regions monitored by the survey seeing a rise in employment. In the cases where job numbers did increase, growth was generally only marginal. Business costs rose more swiftly across most areas in November, which contributed to the cautious approach to hiring."

 

Please see the regional reports in full:

UK National (PDF, 1,822KB)

East of England (PDF, 2,100KB)

East Midlands (PDF, 920KB)

London (PDF, 396KB)

North East (PDF, 1,461KB)

North West (PDF, 1,547KB)

Scotland (PDF, 1,268KB)

South East (PDF, 4,094KB)

South West (PDF, 2,243KB)

Wales (PDF, 924KB)

West Midlands (PDF, 2,067KB)

Yorkshire and the Humber (PDF, 1,730KB)

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This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

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